22 March 2007

Good Buy?

So, if you follow the blog, you know that we were long the NQM7 yesterday at 1782.75 and closed out our long positions at 1790.25 for a healthy plus 7.5 points before the world changed...the question is should we have just placed an even stop and held through the "FedSpeak"...in retrospect of course we should have...why not?
Only, on most FMOC days, the futures would have flopped around and taken out stops on both sides of the bias, ours included, before choosing a direction...that didn't happen yesterday, and we missed out on a 40+ point move but that is the nature of the game...

Anyway, as expected, futures flat across the board this morning. The Nikkei posted another rally up about 1.5% with the European complex almost up the same...Bonds giving back some of yesterday's gains with Gold sitting near $665 and light sweet crude perched above the 60 handle at $60.55...The Dollar got crunched following yesterday's report and has barely recovered any of those gains...anyone headed to Europe this summer better bring two backpacks, one of your clothes and a second full of cash...

For today...I don't expect an immediate reversal of yesterday's blowout...so fading a quick fast drop into support near 1812 with a stop near 1808 will probably work out for a pop back into the 1820's...higher is a little trickier with 1837 and 1842-1845 proving resistance but a move up there might just stagnate and we might not want to be involved short and vulnerable to a quick volume less spike...so careful on that play...

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