30 November 2007

Get Shorty

I just sold a few contracts at 2125 and am waiting for the open to get a feel for the action...A move through the 2150 area invalidates my trade idea... we'll wait and watch, looking for the market to give back a great portion of the recent tepid move...jfg.

29 November 2007

The Give Back


We'll start with the intraday orgy that was today and thank my lucky stars that I was not short as my inclination these last weeks was the FED would step in here, wether in word or deed. Classic bear market action...carrot and the stick...

back to the longer term trend, mixed at best...I'll be selling bigger then usual if the futures manage to hit the the teens here, (2110+), with the idea that this bounce will be the best, last chance for the dive into the August lows before a meager year end bounce that leads into the 2008 "give back"...jfg.

22 November 2007

Trader's Almanac And The 40+ VIX

I've misplaced my trusty Trader's Almanac. Cannot find it anywhere. I bring this up only to quote from it. I do believe the quote might go something like this...
" If you are of the sort that likes to short the market, the Thanksgiving week, for lack of a better term, is the perfect time to leave for your holiday on Monday afternoon..."
Yet, this time around, volatility and volume are way above norms and I'm finding that my prior thesis of waiting for a bull trap somewhere over the 2100 level will leave me behind the curve...I've placed sell orders a few points under today's lows...1987 to be exact...if I've learned anything in this journey it's that if this level is broken we should, might, could see a quick 80+ drop into the 1900 levels above that August low...should be a good trade...
jfg.

21 November 2007

Dollar Breakdown


Daily chart still intact...for a bounce anyway...looking for 2100 to be broken...bringing some reticent bulls back in...and perhaps we will see them squashed like today...I'll be selling futures somewhere in the teens to the twenties ...over 2100...jfg.

15 November 2007

On The Sidelines

Lots of headlines, coupled with expiration has me concentrating on my day job. Tons of long only equity traders will get sucked into a break over the 2100 where I believe the market may just break their backs and hopes for the Santa rally...jfg.

13 November 2007

Applicious

So I finally got one right for a change as those $160 Nov. AAPL calls (@APVKL, bought for $350) were good for almost a triple as I just flipped out of them for $1000 each...Going to stay away the rest of the week as I'm not sure how expiration is going to push the board...If we rally hard here I'll be waiting with some futures for sale...but I imagine that might be much higher then here...jfg.

12 November 2007

Anything For A Bounce


With the futures flying all over the place and my thinking we'll see a bounce here over the next 24 hours... I stepped in here and bought a small speculative position in some Nov. AAPL (@AVPKL) $160 calls at $350 per...I may be an ass and a devout hater of all things aaple...but we'll take a swing here and keep my fingers crossed that nothing happens between now and the morning that will make these things worthless...God knows I have been there before...I don't see holding these calls much past Tuesday afternoon...jfg.

11 November 2007

Let The Good Times Roll...


So the bears doing back flips as the hedge funds flip out of puts too early and watch their tech positions get hammered...I expect more volatility as a "bottom" is put in...at least for the week.

09 November 2007

Swooooooosh

I usually trade off pivots where I feel traders will either be waiting to buy or take profits...either way, those price areas usually give a clearer picture of who is in charge. If I want to buy in an area where I believe there will other buyers or at least some shorts taking profits...the action at that area should either confirm or negate my trade ideas in a fairly short time...if I don't like what I see, I can usually get out of those trades with fairly little damage...this is not one of those times as I have absolutely no feel for where the market is headed in the short term...so we'll sit in cash until we can find some sort of range to play around in that is smaller than a 100 points...
For all those shorts, congrats...jfg.

08 November 2007

Buy! Sell! Chill!

Watch Out Below

The Naz just getting absolutely pounded as no one wants to own tech now...GOOG down a cool $50 bucks and when was the last time AAPL was down $10+...definitely pulling in the horns here as the idea of trying to scalp in here (up or down) has me feeling nauseous...the VIX just screaming higher...we've gone from overbought readings to very oversold readings in just a matter of sessions...I would assume we will stabilize in here above 2100...is that all she wrote for the bulls?
jfg.

Gabba Gabba Hey!

The world of trading...just when I'm convinced we'd go higher and find being short here dangerous, the market puts in a nice 85 point drop. Funny how that works! Well it's still all about the pivots...I'll wait for the inevitable rally and pick my spots to get short near 2200...a break of the overnight lows near 2150 and the Oct. lows near 2125 should be in play...depending on how quickly that happens...it should be a good place for scalping higher...jfg.

07 November 2007

Death Spiral

Some pretty good selling today as the usual culprits (WM, CFC, MER) get whacked. We'll see what the overnights do as a gap higher may yet again chase late shorts back to their cave...jfg.

Waiting With Beards

The moves today in the Euro and gold are almost breath taking...having been long the Euro in the $1.17 and $1.29 areas, it is very hard to watch the currency smash through $1.47...I was also long gold in the $560 area, but enough on that. Markets taking it on the chin and it looks like a trend day...we'll probably finish on the lows so no bottom fishing for me...I'm still looking for financials to stabalize giving the green light for the speculators to jump back into the NAZ...jfg.

06 November 2007

Same Old, Same Old

I apologize for the same old droll look of this blog. Working full time has humbled my internet aspirations. Basically, let's boil things down to the price action and go from there. Trust me...I hate this market and all the problems that exist and have been discussed ad naseum here, still exist!! The problem here seems the sellers are backing off and we may hit an airpocket on the NAZ to the upside...and I want to profit from that...jfg.

It's Never Easy

Late shorts taken to the woodshed as muted strength in GOOG and AAPL are enough for a mini squeeze that pushes the NDX right up to the 2020 pivot...done for the day as afternoon meetings have me busy until the close...jfg.

G-Phone Rally


Looking for 2220 for about fifteen points...so about a 2 to 1 R/R...we'll see how it goes. I just think the bears will keep getting frustrated as the financials bounce this afternoon and that should push tech higher...jfg.

05 November 2007

HellBoy

If the financials start to bounce this week and the Spyders stay green for more than a day...tech could easily start another move...regardless of oil and her bastard child gasoline, the dollar, goldbugs, SIV's, CDO's, SARS and Mushareef...if the NDX starts rolling I wouldn't be surprised to see another big move to the upside...

01 November 2007

Some Profits!!

I was thinking that no matter how ugly things were this morning that the market might turn around...well as 2p.m. neared it seemed apparent that was not going to be the case...regardless, the power of pivots can be quite dramatic as I pretty much caught the bottom tick and will happily book these gains...probably done for the week...jfg.

He Might Be On To Something...

Innocent Until Proven...