28 February 2007

LunchTime Lurch

Markets relatively calm as both the S&P and NQ futures run into their resistance levels and turn tail.
Internals positive with advance decline lines 2-1 green on the NYSE and 1.5-1 on the "tech heavy" Naz. Up/down volumes almost 2-1 up on both exchanges
The blogosphere filled with opinions today as everyone and their mother thinking this or that...caution here and bottom there...

Interesting take from the first thing I read every morning...21stCenturyFutures...subscription required.

So now we have this crazy, distracting stock market crash being blamed on "China's stock market" which was never a really important factor in the US market. Around the world other markets fell but none as dramatically as the US....why?

Another factor in all of this which is really vital and damning is the now discovered BBC(British Broadcasting Corp.) broadcast DURING the 911 attacks. Their correspondent is standing in front of Building 7 reporting of it's collapse 23 MINUTES BEFORE IT COLLAPSED. Building 7, which has never gotten a plausable explanation for it's collapse/implosion, is clearly sitting in the background live while the BBC correspondent is reading the report of how it has collapsed.

Check it out for yourself. http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/february2007/270207trustanything.htm

Talk about shocking, rigged news and the media being involved with these type of staged events....this one takes the cake in my 30 years of investigating this kind of stuff. The last massive, outrageous crash we had was during the supposed British train bomb attacts by terrorists (the investigation of which has been avoided by the BBC). The market tanked hard in pre market and then turned around completely intraday and formed the bottom for the recent rally higher we just completed years later.

Check it out for yourself http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/february2007/270207trustanything.htm

I rarely report about any of these type of things on the Morning Call anymore but I always do extra research whenever the markets make a strange move like the one we saw on Tuesday.

To have an edge in the market you have to see things that the general public does not recognize or consider in their analysis. Late last week we had "Crash Alert" signals, Bearish Market Force readings, and then an odd underlying shift to bullish for Tuesday but with the warning of some "out of left field" type news coming in.

I fear that all this may be a distraction for the combination of the Libby guilty verdict coming down anytime, the court transcripts being made public and enraging the US public even more against the administration and their "war policies" as well as the complicit news media in helping stage many of these events that trigger so called "random or coincidental" market moves.

My strongest concern is that an attack on Iran may be ordered anytime triggering World War III if the Russians and Chinese do not take kindly to such action and team up against the aggressors.

I do not know where this will send the stock market, but I wanted to let you know some of my inside research and where it might lead.

Now I don't usually go for this type of thing but there are so many odd angles to some of these earth shattering events that I am fully open to at least considering "alternative" thinking. A successful trader considers all the angles.

NFLX Revisited

Went ahead and shorted NFLX (once again) as the NQ futures hit resistance in the 1780 zone...I think we head back down from here but I don't feel like playing the futures today...looking at the $44 QQQQ puts as well but I like NetFlix here to break support levels about forty cents underneath today's lows of $22.10 for a shot into the $18 area...Relying on the gut here that investors will kick out the names like NFLX whose story is getting long in the tooth and whose main business is being eaten alive by natural market forces.

Internals slightly positive as futures roll back from resistance levels...1420 in the S&P...might get the dive bomb here if the internals flip read...no easy going for bulls or bears today...jfg.

Wild Ride Continued...


Everybody Okay Up Here?

Futures ticking near their respective highs at 6 a.m. The Dow up 101 @ 12281, the S&P up 13.5 @ 1409 and the NQ's @ 1768 up 17.50. European Markets holding steady down almost a universal 1% across the board while Asian bourses taken down pretty harshly with the Nikkei down almost 4%. It seems the world will not end today.
Looking back over yesterday's carnage especially the volume levels, one would have to assume that as the afternoon wore on and things looked bleaker, foreign traders began dumping futures contracts here in order to get a leg ahead on their respective markets. With the expansion of the electronic markets, I'm sure more than one late night lackey manning the midnight trading desk was told to just sell, sell, sell fearing a worldwide crisis. The unwinding of some of that insurance could lead to a pretty strong bounce this morning...the question is does it hold?

27 February 2007

Lucy, You Got Some Splainin' To Do!


What can you say? The Dow futures just hit -525, you just have to laugh I guess...I folded and sold my small Mer calls for a loss...in case you were wondering and stepped into some QQQQ calls which of course are underwater already but we will hold on to those for a while.
The up/down volume on the big board just hit a negative reading of 27 to 1...that is 27 to 1...27 to 1...
Haven't seen this kind of bloodletting in 6 years and by the way what happened to the controls they supposedly have on the exchanges...reminder: you will not get your money back because of exchange snafus...
What else is there to say...jfg.

Call 911!

So selling continues unabated into lunch with the S&P hitting 1428 down almost 25 points, the Dow down some 185 and the Nasdaq down 47...I hate being on the wrong side of things here but with my little weekend holiday and entering the morning flat, dipping my toe in here on the long side may still prove to be the right thing to do over the next few sessions. Sure doesn't feel too smart at the moment. For now I'm just going to sit with my small MER call position and see what the afternoon brings. I still expect a bounce in here be it today or the morrow...jfg.

Will She Call Me Back??

Markets continue to act like lost children fumbling around near the lows of the day.
Market internals the ugliest seen in a long while..

Nasdaq 356 2532
NYSE 462 2646

Nasdaq 672,069/7,376,045
NYSE 33,666,900/583,090,032

Have to think a buy spike is coming but you never know. MER still acting poorly as sellers are bringing the issue into the lower range of the day...not going to give up here though as the oversold level is reaching absurd levels...not crazy either so a close under $84 will leave me out...jfg

Stepping In...

Who's Got Balls?

So futures just getting crushed with the $5 Dow down 98, S&P - 13.50 and Naz - 29. Durable goods numbers a whopping -3.5%, about twice what was expected...can anybody say recession?
Now the argument the bulls will declare is that the recent economic numbers dictate a Fed rate cut somewhere down the line, with the odds of a June rate cut doubling overnight, they may be right...but that won't help them this morning...
Not sure I can easily stomach pressing weakness here as support levels that eager bulls have been watching have arrived a week or two earlier then probably expected.
My gut tells me too fade here, so I'm looking at some near month calls in some beaten-up names, namely Merril Lynch which will be amazingly oversold on this weak open...so I'll be watching for panic into the $85 level throwing some money at the 85 March calls for a quick and what I hope a dramatic flip...see you in the shit...jfg.


The story of the morning has to be investors jumping out of Chinese markets as the Shanghai Index dropped some 8.84%, its' biggest drop since 1997...European indexes have followed with the FTSE down 1.35%, the CAC 1.45% lower and the German DAX trading down 1.3%. US equity futures down in sympathy with the Dow -54, the S&P 7.25 and the Nasdaq futures 15 points lower.

Should be quite an interesting morning as RSI traders would have been buying the oversold US equities into yesterday's close...a tactic that has worked almost without exception, thanks to the Shark Report for the link...Not sure what the play is here...my gut tells me to fade any initial move off the open but the real tell will be market internals and the reaction to support levels that may arrive sooner then most think.

  • 1815 in the Nasdaq futures.
  • 1437 in the ES futures.
  • 12,500 in the $5 Dow futures.
I'll be watching my MarketDelta Footprint charts to see the bid/ask volumes at these levels...anyone who has not tried MarketDelta, should definitely check it out...they offer a 1 month free trail with no credit card information required...what else could you ask for...jfg.

26 February 2007

A Little YukVacation

My good friend Michael, chilling poolside at the Fort Lauderdale Hilton BeachSide...nice hotel but only a few weeks open so I would stay somewhere else.
Markets actually end the day red with the Nasdaq futures testing the high 1820 levels I was looking for last week...I would assume the bulls will be buying should the negative news flow abates...I'll probably be looking to scalp the long side should we test down back at today's lows. Otherwise a return to the 1844 level may offer a good fading opportunity.
Should never have covered my MER short from Friday but extending those day trades into swing trades has not been very favorable to my P&L as of late...could this be the start of a trend lower...only time will tell...jfg.

23 February 2007

Later To The Haters

What's Bullish For YukTrader

Where Are The Bulls?

Bulls not stepping up to the plate here as the Dow is down 50, the S&P -7.2 and the Nasadq hardest hit 15 to the red. Market Internals pretty negative here with up/down volume on the Nasdaq actually negative (2444-4195) for the first time in a while...a/d lines lines 1000-1820 on the Naz and 1200-1900 on the NYSE. I'm assuming the bounce is coming but I won't play it.
Just going to sit here with my MER short...headed out of town for the weekend to Fort Lauderdale to see some non-trader NYC friends...so sparse posting until Monday...see you in the sun...jfg.

YukTrader Is Not Bullish On Merill Lynch

Shorted some Merril Lynch (MER:NYSE) for a trade on a break of the $90.50 level...don't see too much support until the $88.50 level...jfg.

Beer Here!

Another beautiful day here, outside YukTraderStation...highs to reach somewhere in the low 80's...And I almost feel that I should just take the day off and hit the beach but alas there is work to do.
I guess the question here is if there is still money sitting on the sidelines or have the bulls fired all of their bullets...Are there folks still watching from the building across the street, ala this funny pic, or are the stands full and the vendors about to cut off beer sales...the action as of late has been bullish indeed with a new "wall of worry" seemingly climbed every morning but I can't bring myself to blindly jump on the band wagon and load up on index calls or just flatly buy the NQ futures and hold them for the next month...I may be blind or have something fundamentally wrong with me but it's not 2003 with APPL at $7 or YHOO at $9...the QQQ(Q) is not trading in the mid $20's...I just don't get the mad rush here to be long and these afternoon spikes into the close just add to my discomfort...so I guess the idea here is to still keep my time frames very short and try to dodge the bullets...
As Lieutenant Colonel Bill Kilgore (Robert Duvall) in Apocalypse Now so aptly put it, "One day this war's gonna end..."

22 February 2007

Closing Out

Giving And Taking


Actually have CNBC on for once...sure seems the mood is a bit more cautious (for once)...NQ ticking up to 1844...I'm assuming just a pause in the selling (hoping?)...after touching into 1837 (gap fill indeed)...things started to pick up when the a/d lines starting flipping red...we'll see if the bids start getting hammered into the end of lunch...I'll be keying in on the divergance between the QQQQ and the SMH...any further selling in the SMH should lead at least the day traders to ride into a down trend day...jfg.

Getting Greedy

Patience, My Young Apprentice


They say you always get what you want from the markets...Obviously I want to lose money but alas YukTrader gets a little lucky here as he pulls his stop and with conviction announces, " This P.O.S cannot go up forever!"
Anyway, with stomach tightened I vowed to cover my NQ short with a half hour close over 1855 and for once it didn't happen...distribution kicking in here as we tick 1846...jfg.

Let's Try This Again...

Shorted some NQ futures at 1851...looking for 1845 or 1841...using 1853-1854 as a stop...jfg

What Is Powering This Market?

Pre-market futures tickling the underbelly of recent highs with the NQ's approaching the 1850 level I've been watching...The news flow is slow save Whole Foods buying Wild Oats...Jobless claims up to bat (who cares) at 8:30 and petroleum reserves at 10:30...Cramer out with bullish semiconductor pumping and news that the Brits will be pulling out of Iraq...I guess it will now be an "Army Of One"

Bulls keep the momo going but resistance levels (using futures here) in the Dow at 12,800, the S&P at 1465 and the Naz at 1850 may prove difficult to power through at least for the time being...but who cares...let's party like it's 1999 and just buy, buy, buy...just like Willie Wonka's glass elevator...through the roof we go...see you in the sky...jfg.

21 February 2007


A Bear Bruising Continued...

Bulls undeterred as CPI numbers, gold spikes, $60 oil or less than dovish Fed Speak result in a spike into the close. Buy the dips! Buy the dips...not until every bear buys the dip will this extended market rollover...until then I will leave you with this one factoid...

The Nasdaq reached its' all time high on March 10, 2000 at 5132.52.

So, in earnest, the 50% retracement level will be hit at 2,566.26, just 47.84 up from today's close.

Food for thought...jfg.

Taking More Profits

Ended up taking profits in the OIH calls @ $1.70 for a nice 26% profit...now this maybe the start of some great move for the oil services or maybe not but this trade was a quick swing trade and I kept it is as one...clues were the ask just getting slammed (click on the MarketDelta Footprint chart above) and overhead resistance from Friday the 16th's swing high.
On other matters NQ futures ticking highs @ 1843 and as I've said before I'll take a shot in either the futures or QQQQ options at fading a spike into 1850...other than that, probably done for the day...jfg

Auzzie, Auzzie, Auzzie... OIH, OIH, OIH!!!

The OIH (Oil Service Holders) only spent 5-10 minutes under yesterday afternoon's swing low @$133.95 before powering higher on the boost in oil prices. I'll be using the 34 bar moving average as a mental stop on the position. Bought the $140 Mar. calls @ $135 apiece and they are ticking @ $160 as I type. The OIH can be pretty volatile so I may bank the profit before the day is through...jfg.

Mixed Messages

Markets somewhat recovering from the bigger than expected CPI numbers. Dow taking the worst of it down .35% with the small caps the strongest down just .13%.
Market internals to the red with the a/d 12-16 on the Naz and 11-18 on the NYSE. Up/down volumes 1831-2629 on the Nasdaq and 826-1861 on the big board.

Novastar (NFI:NYSE) just getting hammered down 36%+ as it basically says no taxable earnings through the next 4 years...ouch...

No trouble in sub-prime world?

OIH just flopping around (bought some Mar. $140 calls at the close yesterday)...looking for yesterday afternoon's swing lows near the $134 level to hold back the selling...if not, I'll be left wanting and little poorer.

Probably not going to do much in the Naz futures today unless we spike up into the 1848-1850 level where I will be looking to fade...oops $134 level in the OIH just hit let's see if the buyers step it up...got to go...jfg.


Markets going to the moon...sure feels that way as the Dow and Russel 2K hit all time highs with the S&P hitting 5 year highs...still dragging is the Nasdaq but it too put in a stellar performance. Complacency abounds here with the VIX in barely double digit range.

CPI just hit and the numbers look a little hot for the bulls as the futures drop with the Dow down 26, the S&P 3.25 and the NQ's minus 5.5...I'll assume the bulls will be buying the dip but one of these days the bears will at least come out their caves for more then a morning...jfg.

20 February 2007

Pocketing Some Gains

Exited NQ futures position @ 1840 for a nice 7.5 points. The S&P's were ticking off new highs and the NQ's were just sitting tight with little volume so I exited figuring there might be some downside risk and considering my recent lack of pocketing gains I took the money and ran. Markets continue very strong and betting against the bullish train has not been very bright. Next stop on the NQ's figures to be the 1848-1850 level, won't be doing anything in this market until then.

Bought some OIH $140 March calls for a trade @ $1.35...see you in the swamp...jfg.

NQ Update

Change Of Stance

If you've been reading the blog you may have noticed that I have been pretty sceptical on the market, especially the Nasdaq...but price settles all arguments and therefore I took a long position getting stopped into some NQ contracts on a break of 1832.50 looking for a retest of the highs on the last swing high(1848) before the top put in around the 1870 area. A strong afternoon will most likely result in a shot at that area today...I've already placed my stop at break even (1832.50)...see you in the show.jfg.

Carry That Weight

Markets under a bit of pressure this morning doing it's usual jig of undoing whichever move was made into expiration. The usual suspects...GOOG, GS, MER, NMX all red with AAPL, JPM to the green.

Market internals somewhat mixed with the Nasdaq showing an A/D line of 1027-1785, up/ down volume 2743-2248.
The NYSE weaker with 999-2002 and 836-1606.

Dip buyers ineffective as of yet but I expect a real battle here as last week's Bernanke bounce has yet to be tested.

Still working with MarketDelta and I am very impressed, especially with the tells it is giving on the 5-minute time frame...back with more...jfg.

Mortgage Matters

As you can see from the chart above, delinquencies in the sub-prime mortgage market are not at or near panic levels but when taken in perspective, there may be worry just around the corner...jfg.

...And We're Back

Up quite early this morning, working on implementing the newest addition to my trading toolbox, MarketDelta. It is quite interesting as it utilizes footprint volume charts. This is one of Traderfeed's weapons in his considerable arsenal and I hope it will elevate my level of trading as well. Tough treading, though, as I've only just read through page 25 of the manual and my head feels numb.

Market futures in the red this morning with Dow -3, S$P -1 and the NQ's -2.5 on the heels of tepid reports from WalMart and Home Depot. Quiet weekend on the news front save some political jawing from John McCain, reports that Al Qaeda is regaining strength and
Britney's new look.

See you in the mud.jfg.

18 February 2007


This Euro trade initiated two weeks ago can make even the most seasoned trader go nuts and want to go get that accounting degree they only have two semesters left to complete. (You can click on the chart to expand). I liked the volatility and volume (not shown) at the $1.2900 level and was looking for entry on three to four contracts...entry was taken at the 1.2988 level and the currency immediately rallied to the 1.3050 level, where, in retrospect, I should have taken some profits. Instead I wanted to hold out for the run into resistance at the bottom of the last range near 1.3125...anyway I set a hard stop just under the 1.2970 level that I believed would hold any swing low. Obviously it did not.

24 ticks (X3) @ $12.50 a tick($37.50) gives a not too fat loss of $900.
Profit goal at the $1.3125 level...$5,100.
So more then 5 -1 risk ratio...jfg.

Buffet Bits

"It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked."
“I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.”
"I've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."
"The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable."
"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'"
"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult."
"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago."

17 February 2007

Very Random Links

DeathMatch: Gates vs. Jobs.
The Financial Times updates one the bigger IPO busts of late, Vonage Holdings.
The Economist weighs in on Bernanke's light parade.
More problems for JetBlue.
Traderfeed looks into the benefits of index screening. This guy works hard.
Filtering Wall Street looks into Blow Off Bottoms.
Adam over at Daily Options Report with a look into how Ben Bernanke spends his off hours.

Enjoy your free Monday. I'll probably be off hitting some other links. I'm out...jfg.

Back By Popular Demand

16 February 2007


Sick Of This Market?


For anyone who either uses the internet very rarely, needs access when visiting Mom or needs a backup internet connection...I recommend visiting SlingShot.com. As you may have read, I am connected through Comcast, and when their network is down, as happens way too much, I end up scurrying to Panera Bread. So I am looking into how SlingShot may work and just like pay-as-you-go cell phones I feel it may provide a very useful service.

Nice Free Charts

I like to use this page from livecharts.co.uk for my tick/trin/vix intra day information. They use a equal weighted average from both the Nasdaq and the NYSE to configure and the charts give a nice feel for market turns... jfg.

Mickey, Where's The Mortgage Money?

More economic numbers out this morning. The core producer price index rose 0.2%. Including food and energy the PPI fell 0.6%, which also matched forecasts.
Housing starts fell 14% to 1.6 million units in Janaury. This was slighly less then the 1.65 million units and represents the largest monthly decline since 1997.
Building permits fell 2.8% to 1.56 million, also shy of the 1.59 million forecast. (Thank you RealMoney).

Wow, so the deterioration in housing shows no sign of abating. I live in a one of the real estate hotbeads down here in southern Florida...and from the people I speak to a low level of panic is starting to kick in...especially from the "late" adopters, those that purchased in the last year and a half.

A friend just said last night, "...so housing should start to recover here, right?" And YukTrader replied, "we haven't even crashed yet!" So when the panic starts in places like the "Treasure Coast, you can only imagine what the rest of the country is going through...see you in the empty lot...jfg.

15 February 2007

Markets just flat lining here through 1:30...definitely expect some action before the day is out...all the indexes forming flags so some pressure to resolve this soon and with expiration looming on the horizon I don't think a quite close is in works but you never know with Big Ben on the screen.

Gotta To Get You Into My Life

Bears bury their heads as another spike in the markets brings the S&P 500 and Dow futures to within ticks of their recent highs as the Nasdaq and especially the Russel 2000 still under preform.

Market Internals mixed with 1338 advancers to 1444 decliners on the Naz with 1635 up and 1342 down on the big board. Up/down volumes 30 - 16 on the Naz with the NYSE slightly negative.

Bonds continue yesterday's rally though heavy resistance may loom ahead. Gold underwater as the Euro and the Yen run against the dollar.

I expect choppiness throughout the day and don't expect to do much trading today or tomorrow for that matter...happy hour looms in the afternoon...here's raising one to you...jfg.

Big Ben

14 February 2007

Cuff Links

Slate on the presumptive demise of hedge funds.

Barry Ritholtz with an eye opening take on the realities and myths of the GDP number.

PBS's Frontline with a great look into politics and the media. You can view the show online here.

Freakonomics with a look into the workings of state lotteries.

Some very interesting charts from Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory.

And Marilyn Trades on why you should always have Earnings.com bookmarked.

YukTraderStation Down

Took the last NQ futures trade (entered short @ 1816.50) flat as the swing back down only offered a few ticks at the 1812.50 level before reversing higher...so negative 6.5 points for the day...obviously not too happy with today's results but we learn everyday...going to go for a bike ride and enjoy the 80 degree weather...should be very strong resistance in the 1825 level and I should have waited for entries in that area but the market is a tricky little bitch sometimes...I'm sure she will be a little more giving in the future...jfg.