22 April 2007

Obit.


Now the YukTrader is fine...no bodily injury, no worse case scenario...he's just fine...the only problem was he was offered a job...damn salary, benefits and possible, just maybe, future equity participation...regardless for the time being we won't be trading "live"...which at the end of the day just sucks ...I don't really know what's next, but check back for some trades...we're not dead here...we're hibernating...just a bit...jfg

18 April 2007

17 April 2007

Bye, Bye Buy Buy...

Just can't get anything right these last few weeks...bulls show up again to buy the early afternoon dip and take out my readjusted stop for a -2.5 on this last trade and -.5 for the day...I just can't seem to be patient enough to wait and play the outer edges of these tighter ranges...the entry on this mornings trade was adequate but my less than bullish bias is inhibiting the making of money and that should never be the case...regardless the internals seem to be of no help as the buyers just show up again and again...one day we will return to a smoother flow of trade but not today...jfg.

Is It Time?

Internals getting a little shakier here as A/D now 1211-1773 and up/downs about even...some -800 tick readings in the last hour...trin still mild @ .80...if things worsen here look for a typical Tuesday of expiration week pounding...jfg.

Oh So Close

So flipped to the short side too early as bias for rally into 1850 proved to be correct...A/D's still negative but up/downs positive...so far my 5 point stop off the 1847.75 short was missed by a tick as NQ's only manage 1852.50...so I am expecting to be stopped out again as the market rarely let's you slip away so close to the edge...but we'll see...maybe it's my day today...jfg.

Getting Flipped Off

Quick Flip


So the buyers show up here just above my stop of 1841.75, printing a low of 1842.75...internals are shaky for the first time in a long while...so I want to take profits on a spike into 1850 and look for a spot to reverse and take them short...A/D on the Naz is 1091-1615 and the up/downs are negative...so itchy trigger finger here as we tick 1847...jfg.

Filled

The Naked Bull

CPI and housing numbers "better than expected" and futures reverse higher...1860 completes the roundabout from the 100 point debacle that was Feb. 27th...so we figure to tag that area...early weakness into 1845-1848 should probably be bought for trip up to that number...early strength into 1860-1862 should be sold...jfg.

Uptown


Is that red I see on the screen? Is it possible? Markets a little nervous pre CPI numbers with the $5 Dow -12, S&P's -3.5 and the Naz -4.75. Dollar taking a beating vs. the British Pound breaking the $2 handle and gold taking it's time ready to bust through the $700 handle...have to think that might happen right here should the CPI roll the right way...
It's been tough trading as of late with tighter ranges coupled with one directional moves...I expect that to end in the next session or two as we enter the twilight-zonish period here at the end of April which has been the time of some curious volatility going back many years...careful where you park your capital as it may not be there when you return...back after the eco numbers with some ideas...lite posting today as my bias has been way off and a great March has led to utter futility these past weeks with the YukTraderTeam only positive 2.5 points through this slog of April...jfg.

16 April 2007

The Pain

Keep Moving

Things have quieted down substantially from the morning fireworks perhaps in regard to the tragedy at Virginia Tech or just lack of vigor on the part of the bulls...it seems we may be rolling over here as what I would assume is the high of the day was printed before lunch and not after as can usually be the case...I'm thinking that could be the high for quite a while but we've certainly thought that before and have been proven wrong...the action at that point seemed very toppy...anyway, internals continue bullish...if they can turn things around here and break through that 1850.50 number then I want to back off for the next few days as expiration week could get carried away to the upside as pressures could throw a wrench in the free flow of trade...jfg.

One More Try

0-1

So stop taken at the 1845 level for -3.75 points and the slow grind that today has become...next level I'm looking for is 1853...so we'll see if they cam bust then up into there after lunch...presently ticking 1847.75...so my next move will be taking another shot at the short side about six points up from here with a firm stop around 1857...we'll see...the way things have been going of late that level won't be offered before the market turns tail.
jfg.

View From Below

Still underwater here as markets remain strong...NQ's manage to tick 1844.50...so possible double top in place here but as the day wears on the gap fill trade may be thinning out as traders don't want to stand in front of possible fright train...new highs bring 1855 into view...so if stopped out here, I'd shy away from the short side...jfg.

Update

Time To Dump?

So high printed @ 1844.75 so far...tick readings muted on new highs...so we'll continue to eye that 1845 level...internals strong...watching to see those numbers pull back for confirmation that we are on the right side of things...S&P worryingly
strong...jfg

Following The Plan

The OddsMaker

Want to play the same tune here and most likely get aggressive off the open picking a spot and selling them...more on feel then an exact pivot as we haven't been up in this area in quite a while so the natural push-pull as traders balance out positions won't be there...so a taste of the downside here as a date with 1800 should be in the picture before we move higher if that turns out to be the case...let's try and hold out here for a larger range as selling should beget more selling...I don't expect the "dip buyers" to do their thing on a gap up Monday into resistance...without exact pivots to work with...stops and risk management invariably become more problematic...I would use profit ratio's as a guide...looking for that elusive 20-25 point move? How much are you willing to risk for that? See you in the pool...jfg.

The Bear Grill

Good morning everyone and welcome back from the weekend. Expiration week upon us and it should be one hell of a week...lots of economic numbers in the offing with the Empire State Mfg. Survey and more retail sales and inventory numbers to follow and that's just today. Futures green everywhere to be seen...$5 Dow up 37, S&P's +5 and the Naz +6.75...European exchanges all higher with the dollar on the losing end of things again except against the Yen...The Nikkei puts in another strong day up 264 points and it seems the bullish case knows no bounds...Gold ticking $692 and the $700 level seems a given here...should see some fireworks in that market...the giddiness is apparent and we have to wonder if old Mr. Market has a little punishment in the works...jfg.

13 April 2007

To The Moon

Relentless bullishness as market just spikes almost 10 points here...thank God for stops...I'm done have a great weekend...jfg.

A Sell Off?

Divine Intervention

Triggered Already??


So back from lunch and market has pretty much gone nowhere...we are ticking 1822, exactly where I bailed on our long positions...I'm thinking about using some sell stops below 1820...we'll use 1819.50...from what I'm seeing if they bust it to the upside from here that shouldn't be touched...a weak close could bring 1810 into view...if triggered stop goes right into effect at 1822.50...let's see what happens...jfg

Pulling The Parachute

Reality Check

Can We Get One Right?

All right...so the NQ's tick to within shouting distance of my stop just under 1815 and reverse higher...internals are negative but as we saw yesterday that indicator has been unreliable as of late...so we hold and wait...I am raising my stop to just at the low of this last 5 minute doji candle @ 1816...so we've cut risk down to 3 points...it's not easy "spelling out" exactly where the markets turn...profit targets around 1827 or higher depending what the internals and volume levels look like on this push higher...one and done if stop gets it...losing tends to throw off my bias...jfg

Buy The Dip!

KISS

Steamed


Good morning...back at things again today after yesterday's system malfunction...it sure felt as if I caught something, the way we traded on Thursday...but we get up and dust ourselves off and prepare to fight it out again...
Actually ticking lower this morning with the $5 Dow -1, the S&P -1.25 and the NQ's -4 hovering above the 1820 pivot...the Nikkei down 176 with European markets flattish and to the green...gold off to a good start at $684 and you have to think that $700 is not far off but who cares...bonds slightly red with oil just over the $64 pivot...gasoline futures hit highs again yesterday and maybe that might matter...NOT...more trade numbers out this morning as the dollar continues its' nosedive...and the PPI to hit at 8:30, so the inflation bed bug in the air...let's let those numbers cross before we try to put together some ideas for today...jfg.

12 April 2007

Mea Culpa

Well, we took a beating today, no doubt about it and I have to think we were not the only ones but we are still standing...no account wrecking trades here allowed...we move on and get up in the morning as if nothing happened and lick our wounds and ponder why we allowed our risk management controls to get so out of wack...not even going to stick around for the close...need to get outside for a drink or something...maybe I'll delete all these posts and hang an old "gone fishing" sign on the door knob...again all part of the business and you can't expect to win everyday but we did let things get out of hand...mea culpa...jfg.

No Breaks

So wrapping things up on one of the worst days I've had in quite a while...we minimized the damage a bit here in the afternoon but the stats don't lie and I look forward to tightening up my game...jfg

Early Bears And Late Bulls?

Back In the Game

Formulas

So figuring out this market lately has been difficult and relying on past experience and reliable indicators hasn't helped. There is every reason for this market to cool off and I need not go into the details. I still want to primarily stay on the sell side of things the further we are away from the 1700's. Obviously today we should have been buyers but that is in retrospect and we don't don't get to trade in the rear view mirror. We are testing the highs here again @ 1727.50 and if we can hit 1832-1833, I am going to hit the sell button yet again...if I am wrong again...so bit it...jfg.

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong!!!

DumbAss


Next stop McDonald's...I think not...so NQ's seem to put in a top @ 1824.25...just 3 ticks from our stop...(long exhale)...
Why am I being so stubborn today? All I do is preach about risk management and that obviously went out the window today...I am not sure...have to think about that one...it seems we are rolling over here and thoughts of walking away today unscathed are popping into my head...we shall see...I am watching the internals to flip back over to the red and will monitor the situation through lunch...another push through 1825 obviously takes us out as I am not that stubborn...so let's sit tight and try to get our money back...jfg.

Survival

Worst Case Scenario

Okay, so we've trapped ourselves here as I warned this morning...the early weakness led me to falsely think that upside was limited...and the bulls have ran things up into 1818...I have to think that was it so a trip through 1820 will have me contemplating taking the biggest loss the YukTraderTeam has seen in a long while...I'm still holding though and will wait for the market to rebalance itself.
jfg.

A Little Confirmation?

Making A Move

Time To Play?

RIP



Kurt Vonnegut (1922-2007)

If This Is It

Pretty simple set up today...if the bulls can run the market up into 1818...I want to be a seller...careful though through the first hour as 1825 is a definite possibility and we can define our risk a bit better up there...want to be patient as it may take a while to kiss this range over 1800 goodbye and start heading towards the important (at least in my my mind) pivots around 1750...not expected until next week when the gravitational pull of expiration should tame the overly bullish crowd...
So we do not want to get short too early in the high teens and watch as the market spikes into 1825 leaving us either stopped out or bidding just to get even...so relaxed trade today...jfg.

You Were Warned

Good morning from YukTraderStation...off to a bit of a late start with some technical problems but we seem to have figured those out...keep the fingers crossed...Actual RED on the screens this morning as all of our futures are down along with markets through out the world...yesterday's FOMC "double sided" minutes seemed to signal to the bulls that they were not going to bailed out by a rate cut anytime soon...import/export numbers on the till as well as jobless claims...money supply after the bell...that should be an interesting number...headlines kind of quiet save Vonage resignation and RIMM job down more than 6% premarket...be back soon with some ideas and a chart...jfg.

11 April 2007

The Streak

So the bulls get shit on for once with talk of inflation and "systematic firming"...not too bad though as 1800 on the Naz holds and all the bears can manage is the break of one of the more pathetic "winning" streaks ever seen...bond yields sprinted though only to be reigned in by the close...still tons of takeover chatter all over the place and the liquidity pump still seems to be fully open...finally a bigger range to play with and some volume and those are the lifeblood of our business...so over all, abandoning YukTraderStation for a few hours was the right thing to do and I hope anyone that stayed around to play kept on the sell side...we'll be back at it in the morning with some earnings to digest and lots of commentary from the "know it alls" to consume...see you then...jfg.

Bull Bail Out

Wild Ride

Alright, so the bullish bus hits a pot hole and nervousness before the FED notes takes the market down pretty hard on better volume...so our strategies the past few sessions of setting sell stops under the market would have worked perfectly today...they might blame 8 month highs in gasoline or the weaker dollar...it's not our job to find answers...it is our job to make money...I still expect buyers to show...lows put in here at 1812.75...those should hold...if there is no pop from here in the next hour, I am folding the tent and heading to the beach...we are ticking 1815...long from 1814...and looking for a spike into 1824...jfg.

Locked And Reloaded

Stopped Out