21 December 2007

Guilty As Charged

If anyone is left reading this blog...there it is...I did it...started a blog and walked away...promise you a look into the mindset of a futures trader who is pushing that button every day and stopped...no worries...I'm pissed as well, money didn't show...like every other trader or business these days...under-financed...I am a fraud...and any post from now on is based on that premise...when I said I was trading 5 contracts it was three...going in "big " was 6 contracts instead of nine...I am a restaurant manager in Vero Beach, Florida...but it's a great restaurant...and the market teaches in many ways...jfg.

11 December 2007

PostFedRomp

We'll see what happens as to whether that level is hit and if so when to exit. I've been burned lately on solid entries, letting profits slip away, waiting for that elusive 100 point move...jfg.

06 December 2007

Pump Up The Volume

Great entries at the 2125 and 2100 levels leave me not to far behind the curve as the market drinks the kool-aid of pumped up economic figures and the promise of "Helicopter" Ben. I'm back to playing defense...guarding against losses instead of counting big gains...jfg.

03 December 2007

Marvin Gaye (1939-1984)

...I just sold a few more contracts just under the 2100 level...a move over the 2125 level will stop me out of the whole position...market feeling sluggish...jfg.

Evel Knievel (1938-2007)

30 November 2007

Get Shorty

I just sold a few contracts at 2125 and am waiting for the open to get a feel for the action...A move through the 2150 area invalidates my trade idea... we'll wait and watch, looking for the market to give back a great portion of the recent tepid move...jfg.

29 November 2007

The Give Back


We'll start with the intraday orgy that was today and thank my lucky stars that I was not short as my inclination these last weeks was the FED would step in here, wether in word or deed. Classic bear market action...carrot and the stick...

back to the longer term trend, mixed at best...I'll be selling bigger then usual if the futures manage to hit the the teens here, (2110+), with the idea that this bounce will be the best, last chance for the dive into the August lows before a meager year end bounce that leads into the 2008 "give back"...jfg.

22 November 2007

Trader's Almanac And The 40+ VIX

I've misplaced my trusty Trader's Almanac. Cannot find it anywhere. I bring this up only to quote from it. I do believe the quote might go something like this...
" If you are of the sort that likes to short the market, the Thanksgiving week, for lack of a better term, is the perfect time to leave for your holiday on Monday afternoon..."
Yet, this time around, volatility and volume are way above norms and I'm finding that my prior thesis of waiting for a bull trap somewhere over the 2100 level will leave me behind the curve...I've placed sell orders a few points under today's lows...1987 to be exact...if I've learned anything in this journey it's that if this level is broken we should, might, could see a quick 80+ drop into the 1900 levels above that August low...should be a good trade...
jfg.

21 November 2007

Dollar Breakdown


Daily chart still intact...for a bounce anyway...looking for 2100 to be broken...bringing some reticent bulls back in...and perhaps we will see them squashed like today...I'll be selling futures somewhere in the teens to the twenties ...over 2100...jfg.

15 November 2007

On The Sidelines

Lots of headlines, coupled with expiration has me concentrating on my day job. Tons of long only equity traders will get sucked into a break over the 2100 where I believe the market may just break their backs and hopes for the Santa rally...jfg.

13 November 2007

Applicious

So I finally got one right for a change as those $160 Nov. AAPL calls (@APVKL, bought for $350) were good for almost a triple as I just flipped out of them for $1000 each...Going to stay away the rest of the week as I'm not sure how expiration is going to push the board...If we rally hard here I'll be waiting with some futures for sale...but I imagine that might be much higher then here...jfg.

12 November 2007

Anything For A Bounce


With the futures flying all over the place and my thinking we'll see a bounce here over the next 24 hours... I stepped in here and bought a small speculative position in some Nov. AAPL (@AVPKL) $160 calls at $350 per...I may be an ass and a devout hater of all things aaple...but we'll take a swing here and keep my fingers crossed that nothing happens between now and the morning that will make these things worthless...God knows I have been there before...I don't see holding these calls much past Tuesday afternoon...jfg.

11 November 2007

Let The Good Times Roll...


So the bears doing back flips as the hedge funds flip out of puts too early and watch their tech positions get hammered...I expect more volatility as a "bottom" is put in...at least for the week.

09 November 2007

Swooooooosh

I usually trade off pivots where I feel traders will either be waiting to buy or take profits...either way, those price areas usually give a clearer picture of who is in charge. If I want to buy in an area where I believe there will other buyers or at least some shorts taking profits...the action at that area should either confirm or negate my trade ideas in a fairly short time...if I don't like what I see, I can usually get out of those trades with fairly little damage...this is not one of those times as I have absolutely no feel for where the market is headed in the short term...so we'll sit in cash until we can find some sort of range to play around in that is smaller than a 100 points...
For all those shorts, congrats...jfg.

08 November 2007

Buy! Sell! Chill!

Watch Out Below

The Naz just getting absolutely pounded as no one wants to own tech now...GOOG down a cool $50 bucks and when was the last time AAPL was down $10+...definitely pulling in the horns here as the idea of trying to scalp in here (up or down) has me feeling nauseous...the VIX just screaming higher...we've gone from overbought readings to very oversold readings in just a matter of sessions...I would assume we will stabilize in here above 2100...is that all she wrote for the bulls?
jfg.

Gabba Gabba Hey!

The world of trading...just when I'm convinced we'd go higher and find being short here dangerous, the market puts in a nice 85 point drop. Funny how that works! Well it's still all about the pivots...I'll wait for the inevitable rally and pick my spots to get short near 2200...a break of the overnight lows near 2150 and the Oct. lows near 2125 should be in play...depending on how quickly that happens...it should be a good place for scalping higher...jfg.

07 November 2007

Death Spiral

Some pretty good selling today as the usual culprits (WM, CFC, MER) get whacked. We'll see what the overnights do as a gap higher may yet again chase late shorts back to their cave...jfg.

Waiting With Beards

The moves today in the Euro and gold are almost breath taking...having been long the Euro in the $1.17 and $1.29 areas, it is very hard to watch the currency smash through $1.47...I was also long gold in the $560 area, but enough on that. Markets taking it on the chin and it looks like a trend day...we'll probably finish on the lows so no bottom fishing for me...I'm still looking for financials to stabalize giving the green light for the speculators to jump back into the NAZ...jfg.

06 November 2007

Same Old, Same Old

I apologize for the same old droll look of this blog. Working full time has humbled my internet aspirations. Basically, let's boil things down to the price action and go from there. Trust me...I hate this market and all the problems that exist and have been discussed ad naseum here, still exist!! The problem here seems the sellers are backing off and we may hit an airpocket on the NAZ to the upside...and I want to profit from that...jfg.

It's Never Easy

Late shorts taken to the woodshed as muted strength in GOOG and AAPL are enough for a mini squeeze that pushes the NDX right up to the 2020 pivot...done for the day as afternoon meetings have me busy until the close...jfg.

G-Phone Rally


Looking for 2220 for about fifteen points...so about a 2 to 1 R/R...we'll see how it goes. I just think the bears will keep getting frustrated as the financials bounce this afternoon and that should push tech higher...jfg.

05 November 2007

HellBoy

If the financials start to bounce this week and the Spyders stay green for more than a day...tech could easily start another move...regardless of oil and her bastard child gasoline, the dollar, goldbugs, SIV's, CDO's, SARS and Mushareef...if the NDX starts rolling I wouldn't be surprised to see another big move to the upside...

01 November 2007

Some Profits!!

I was thinking that no matter how ugly things were this morning that the market might turn around...well as 2p.m. neared it seemed apparent that was not going to be the case...regardless, the power of pivots can be quite dramatic as I pretty much caught the bottom tick and will happily book these gains...probably done for the week...jfg.

He Might Be On To Something...

Innocent Until Proven...

30 October 2007

The Season of Giving (Back)

Fade To Black

This is a quick trade that I will not be holding very long...I am well aware of the big bad Fed.

26 October 2007

Fed Up

The Bernanke Call

What else is there to say...do you want to short here?
Scalp the upside...I guess.

25 October 2007

The Bernanke Put

So if your a lover of volatility, this market is for you...the ranges have become explosive with huge volume to boot...Wednesday's action was remarkably similar to the bottoming action in August...another comeback today would have me thinking that we go higher and that Bernanke will do the market's bidding once again. A break of Monday's lows should see a steep drop and push bias more to a massive topping formation. The old adage goes that volatility picks up at market turns...we shall see...sitting in cash for now...jfg.

23 October 2007

All Time Highs

So we have new highs in AAPL, GOOG and NVDA...just to name a few...Friday was just another one day wonder and all credit, housing, consumer and deficit-currency problems should be forgotten until we are at least 5 percent higher... shorts should go burn in hell where they belong and bet the house,the kids and the dog...hell let's even buy some financials...I would think you buy this gap today...but I won't be playing as I'll be in meetings today and preparing for a nice weekend in South Beach...remember those gorilla gap trades...stick to the plan...jfg.

22 October 2007

Morning Quickie

Safety Blitz

I'll be watching these two levels with interest, fading rallies...with my luck the market will fall apart and I'll end up having to chase...jfg.

19 October 2007

Whipsaw

So the twentieth anniversary of the big bad crash is upon us on expiration no less...GOOG reports another stellar quarter and the over nights are all over the place....I was opining on wanting to buy near the 2180 pivot but with all the crosscurrents, I've stayed on the sidelines...see you next week...jfg.

16 October 2007

Downtown

And Winner Is...

Quote of the Year...

From the The New York Times:

Big U.S. Banks Try to Restore Confidence in Credit Markets



"The plan calls for the banks to create a new financing vehicle to try to restore confidence and reduce the risk of a market meltdown by propping up an important part of the debt markets. But the banks hope to take minimal risk and avoid actually investing any of their own money."

...
who would have thought?

12 October 2007

Recap


I just wanted to spend a minute going over my crazy last two days of trade as a quick review of my posts leaves even me confused...On Wed. afternoon I was itching to get involved so I placed some sell order stops at 2186 that were hit and then the market of course took off back to the the upside breaking through my stops overnight for a quick twenty point loss...such is the beast...I had been waiting the whole week for an overnight gap to short into...well we got that gap so I shorted again at 2208 and the market actually collapsed right on cue giving me the opportunity to bag most of that quick drop...covering at the 2170 level...the lesson here is stick to your plan...jfg.

05 October 2007

Count DeMonay

So the payroll numbers come in positive and we get a lovely Friday gap up...Washington Mutual reports some very ugly numbers and bottom callers abound now that it is a "dividend play"...the grass is always greener I guess. And Bush announces that "we don't torture people". We are now at war with Oceania and allied with East Asia...Orwell would love this.

I just returned from my own personal Mets funeral and await a Yankee's post-mortem this weekend.

Back to the markets...GOOG, AAPL, RIMM at all time highs...I'm waiting for the futures to tag the 2200 level before getting back involved...jfg.

02 October 2007

The Jeffersons

That first move off the lows was from 1830-2060 or about 230 points...the next intermediate low was formed in the 1970 level...so a straight "moonshot" to the 2200 area is no out of the question...we shall see what happens...jfg.