15 March 2007

Double Bottom?

So obviously the buzz today is that the worst is over and that we've retested the lows and held. The conventional wisdom will say it is time to buy "with both hands". But is it ever that easy? If, in fact, the fundamentals haven't changed and this was a standard shakeout of the "weak" hands and sub prime is a just a blip and the economy is doing great and Larry Kudlow is my hero...then new highs are just around the corner. Straight up from here. There's no inflation, there's no carry trade and the consumer is strong...so just relax and buy.
And for a day or a week, they may be right...but it never plays out that way...so with expiration on Friday, my advice is if you've met your goals for the week, like we have at YukTraderStation, take the rest of the week off.
Catch up on your reading and step away from the screen...lunch with the girlfriend...whatever.
One of the reasons we trade is autonomy...the ability to make your own schedule and be in charge of your own life...so on that note, we will be shutting down until Monday.
I have some client meetings later today and a round of golf beckons for Friday...I have absolutely no bias for today or tomorrow...with all the recent volatility of late, who knows where the market Gods need things to go be by 4 p.m. Friday to ensure that the most pain is inflicted.

No comments: