18 January 2007

Apples To Apples

So just for fun we'll say we bought that Feb. AAPL strangle ten times.

@QAABS/$5.10...$5100
@QAANS/$4.70...$4700 Total...$9800.

Remember we are hoping for a Max out on one of the positions . Either AAPL opening down 10% (around $85.50) or up 10% (well say $104).

At $85.5 the puts should be near $12 while the calls would still hold some value..the reverse would be true with a gap up.

Well AAPL opens here near $92...with @QAABS (Feb. calls) trading near$2.50
...with @QAANS (puts) trading near$5.40

So closing the position outright at the open would result in a quick 20% loss...with falling volatility, should the stock remain somewhat range bound, the loss would only widen if only somewhat and slowly.

This type of trade has been working very well this last six months...could this say something about the extended nature of this market.

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