Gambling around the FED is probably not the smartest thing to do but for some reason I thought I had this one pegged and for once I was right...I think we will see a powerful rally these next few trading sessions...but I'll wait it out it out on the sidelines for now...jfg.
We'll sit here and talk of bottoms...until the financials find some buyers there is no bottom in tech...no bottom...there are investment houses getting buried in the MER's, the BSC's and the C's...they have profits in the NDX...and they will take them...until there is nothing left...they will take them...jfg.
News of the possible sale came a day after Countrywide disclosed that 7.2 percent of the loans in its servicing portfolio were delinquent last month, up from 4.6 percent in December 2006. Foreclosures also more than doubled last month, to 1.44 percent of unpaid principal balances versus 0.70 percent in December 2006.
If anyone is left reading this blog...there it is...I did it...started a blog and walked away...promise you a look into the mindset of a futures trader who is pushing that button every day and stopped...no worries...I'm pissed as well, money didn't show...like every other trader or business these days...under-financed...I am a fraud...and any post from now on is based on that premise...when I said I was trading 5 contracts it was three...going in "big " was 6 contracts instead of nine...I am a restaurant manager in Vero Beach, Florida...but it's a great restaurant...and the market teaches in many ways...jfg.
We'll see what happens as to whether that level is hit and if so when to exit. I've been burned lately on solid entries, letting profits slip away, waiting for that elusive 100 point move...jfg.
Great entries at the 2125 and 2100 levels leave me not to far behind the curve as the market drinks the kool-aid of pumped up economic figures and the promise of "Helicopter" Ben. I'm back to playing defense...guarding against losses instead of counting big gains...jfg.
...I just sold a few more contracts just under the 2100 level...a move over the 2125 level will stop me out of the whole position...market feeling sluggish...jfg.
I just sold a few contracts at 2125 and am waiting for the open to get a feel for the action...A move through the 2150 area invalidates my trade idea... we'll wait and watch, looking for the market to give back a great portion of the recent tepid move...jfg.
We'll start with the intraday orgy that was today and thank my lucky stars that I was not short as my inclination these last weeks was the FED would step in here, wether in word or deed. Classic bear market action...carrot and the stick...
back to the longer term trend, mixed at best...I'll be selling bigger then usual if the futures manage to hit the the teens here, (2110+), with the idea that this bounce will be the best, last chance for the dive into the August lows before a meager year end bounce that leads into the 2008 "give back"...jfg.
I've misplaced my trusty Trader's Almanac. Cannot find it anywhere. I bring this up only to quote from it. I do believe the quote might go something like this...
" If you are of the sort that likes to short the market, the Thanksgiving week, for lack of a better term, is the perfect time to leave for your holiday on Monday afternoon..."
Yet, this time around, volatility and volume are way above norms and I'm finding that my prior thesis of waiting for a bull trap somewhere over the 2100 level will leave me behind the curve...I've placed sell orders a few points under today's lows...1987 to be exact...if I've learned anything in this journey it's that if this level is broken we should, might, could see a quick 80+ drop into the 1900 levels above that August low...should be a good trade...
jfg.
Daily chart still intact...for a bounce anyway...looking for 2100 to be broken...bringing some reticent bulls back in...and perhaps we will see them squashed like today...I'll be selling futures somewhere in the teens to the twenties ...over 2100...jfg.
Lots of headlines, coupled with expiration has me concentrating on my day job. Tons of long only equity traders will get sucked into a break over the 2100 where I believe the market may just break their backs and hopes for the Santa rally...jfg.
So I finally got one right for a change as those $160 Nov. AAPL calls (@APVKL, bought for $350) were good for almost a triple as I just flipped out of them for $1000 each...Going to stay away the rest of the week as I'm not sure how expiration is going to push the board...If we rally hard here I'll be waiting with some futures for sale...but I imagine that might be much higher then here...jfg.
With the futures flying all over the place and my thinking we'll see a bounce here over the next 24 hours... I stepped in here and bought a small speculative position in some Nov. AAPL (@AVPKL) $160 calls at $350 per...I may be an ass and a devout hater of all things aaple...but we'll take a swing here and keep my fingers crossed that nothing happens between now and the morning that will make these things worthless...God knows I have been there before...I don't see holding these calls much past Tuesday afternoon...jfg.
So the bears doing back flips as the hedge funds flip out of puts too early and watch their tech positions get hammered...I expect more volatility as a "bottom" is put in...at least for the week.
