Intraday Counter Trend Trade in FCX

Took a trade in FCX on Friday that was definitely counter trend and not usually recommended unless under certain parameters - FCX had broken the 5 dma two days prior then consolidates prior days move and gaps higher today - the 1.3812 fibonacci extension from the prior days body lies at 113.45, the 50% retracement of the prior measured move lies at 113.50 coupled with a flattening 5 dma - though not impossible for price to break through this level - it is highly unlikely to just burst through - so taking a short position here can be done as your likely to be proven wrong quickly - tape reading at this level is crucial. I took the short at the 113.40 level willing to exit quickly just above 113.60 with the VWAP target at 112.70 - trade was accomplished in 20 minutes with about a 3 to 1 risk reward and .70/share profit.

No Mo Momo

Bidu fell off a cliff today on executives comments and technicals - down over 6% on the day - should be in play tomorrow and I like to trade these names using pivots off the prior days body - these are the pivots I will use tomorrow: (click on image to enlarge)

Forexification!!

Mainly doing the forex and twitter thing these days. Too busy too maintain the blog - so if you have any interest -just follow me on Twitter.

Sigh of Relief

So we got " The I Wish I'd Covered My Shorts Last Week" rally that everyone was hoping for. And what a rally it was with the financials and small caps ripping higher and all news interpreted as good news. Of course we've been here before and are aware that this new "positive outlook" can turn on a dime. I caught a good deal of the first portion of the leg up in BIDU and CME but underperformed the late part of the week not wanting to chase. I used a strategy of buying calls into weakness (as if there was any) and buying puts into strength. Fortunately the calls tripled in value as the puts only halved so net postive but not a week for hedging. So kind of kicking myself as this was a week for going for the throat and really left some money on the table. Anyway, the number one rule is staying in the game and we survived for yet another day.
I'll be off the turrets this coming week as I am in the process of switching brokers and that can take some time. So 100% in cash with no idea where we go next.

Positions: None.

Is This The I Wish I...Rally?

...closed all my shorts yesterday rally? S&P futures up 14 as I type and one thought has to pass through your head. Is this the rally that holds and flushes all the late shorts out of the market. I've been trying to position for this type of scenario for a week and it has not been easy. Luckily, the stocks I have been hiding in...BIDU, VRSN and CME have been offering nice scalps and relatively painless overnight holding. I tried to play some FAS calls as well but had to dump them as rational fear overcame greed.
I did dump my VRSN holding into yesterday's opening spike as it closed the gap from last Thurday morning at $20.70 offering a nice .80 for the whole stake. At this point I am long CME March $190 calls and $BIDU March $160s. So if this is a melt up 350+ on the DOW type day, I will be whistling "Dixie" and doing a little celebrating tonight.
Let's see what happens...
Positions:
Long BIDU March $160 calls ($6.50)
Long CME March $190 calls ($4.65)

Balancing Act

Another slow melt on Friday as the jobs numbers left much to be desired. A late afternoon rally sparked by who knows what left the S&P and the DOW slightly green while the ugly step child this day was the NAZ that finished red after an ugly sell-off in the morning. I had thrown the dice a bit Thursday picking up some FAS calls at the bell. Well, those were green for about fifteen minutes until the sellers came in full force and I had to dump them at $30 for a slight loss. There seems no bottom for the financials but at some point the sellers will have exhausted themselves and the shorts will step back for a bit. That should release the bulls for a bit so I have been positioning for this. Picked up some CME calls as the exchanges seem poised for a run. We shall see.

Positions:
Long CME March $190 calls @ $4.90
Long VRSN @ 19.90

Trying To Catch An Anvil

Wow, does it get much uglier. Another just grind lower today with the DOW finishing down 281 and it felt more like 500. One little attempt at a rally in the early afternoon was laughed at and sold off furiously. If they say you must buy when you see the gut wrenching fear in their eyes then that is what one must do. I spent the day nibbling at FAS only to piss away a few cents here and there while cursing myself for not just getting short somewhere something. Alas, I did do some buying, gobbling slugs of VRSN at what I think are bargain prices under $20. At the bell I bought some March $4 FAS calls for $33 bucks each. If we do turn, I think these are an easy double or double double. Only time will tell and there should be some fire works to boot in the morning.
Prediction: Jobs Number -528,00 and we rally like hell.
Positions: Long VRSN @ $20.12, $19.85 and $19.70
Long FAS $4 March Calls @ $33.

A Little Rally

Well, we finally had a little green on the screen and I was able to flip out of the rest of my IWM calls from Wednesday just before 3 p.m. Same old song though as the last hour managed to dump pretty hard. Almost a relief, I would think as a straight one day moonshot would probably reverse immediately. So a panicy rally probably best as just maybe the shorts might get caught here for more then a day. Thinking tomorrow an early dip gets bought and then another muted close as everyone tries to position for Friday morning's jobs number.
Positions:
Long FAS ($3.48)

VRSN

VRSN should benefit from the new administrations move into electronic health recording. I've been watching this one for a few weeks and today it really showed some strength. So on the watchlist she goes as the buyers seem in control here.

YukTrader Lives!

I finally decided to start blogging again as the gentlemen and ladies on StockTwits have welcomed me back into the blogosphere with open arms. Going to keep it lite as I still have a full time job and had stayed away from the markets for a while. Been back trading the last few months and the amazing volatility has offered some great opportunities.
Sitting just above 700 on the S&P as I type and I smell a counter trend rally coming. So we'll see if that plays out.
Current positions:
Long BIDU @ $138.50
Long IWM $38 puts (@IWMOL)@$2.16

More Of The Same

Fed Up

Gambling around the FED is probably not the smartest thing to do but for some reason I thought I had this one pegged and for once I was right...I think we will see a powerful rally these next few trading sessions...but I'll wait it out it out on the sidelines for now...jfg.

That Uneasy Feeling

I'll take the standard 3 to 1 risk reward...1780 takes me out...jfg.

Once In A Lifetime

We'll sit here and talk of bottoms...until the financials find some buyers there is no bottom in tech...no bottom...there are investment houses getting buried in the MER's, the BSC's and the C's...they have profits in the NDX...and they will take them...until there is nothing left...they will take them...jfg.

Ouch.

News of the possible sale came a day after Countrywide disclosed that 7.2 percent of the loans in its servicing portfolio were delinquent last month, up from 4.6 percent in December 2006. Foreclosures also more than doubled last month, to 1.44 percent of unpaid principal balances versus 0.70 percent in December 2006.

New Post

Guilty As Charged

If anyone is left reading this blog...there it is...I did it...started a blog and walked away...promise you a look into the mindset of a futures trader who is pushing that button every day and stopped...no worries...I'm pissed as well, money didn't show...like every other trader or business these days...under-financed...I am a fraud...and any post from now on is based on that premise...when I said I was trading 5 contracts it was three...going in "big " was 6 contracts instead of nine...I am a restaurant manager in Vero Beach, Florida...but it's a great restaurant...and the market teaches in many ways...jfg.

PostFedRomp

We'll see what happens as to whether that level is hit and if so when to exit. I've been burned lately on solid entries, letting profits slip away, waiting for that elusive 100 point move...jfg.

Festivus...for the rest of us...

Pump Up The Volume

Great entries at the 2125 and 2100 levels leave me not to far behind the curve as the market drinks the kool-aid of pumped up economic figures and the promise of "Helicopter" Ben. I'm back to playing defense...guarding against losses instead of counting big gains...jfg.